养老“保险”缴纳之后将来真能顺利领到吗?–由延迟退休想到的–by豪迈(horror)

养老“保险”缴纳之后将来真能顺利领到吗?

–由延迟退休想到的

–by豪迈(horror)

最近看免费地铁报,偶然有一个系列想法,关于商业保险、社会保险。

首先,我是一个外行,所以只是从表面层次说说个人看法。

保险(来自百度百科定义):是指投保人根据合同约定,向保险人支付保险费, 保险人对于合同约定的可能发生的事故因其发生所造成的财产损失承担赔偿保险金责任,或者当被保险人死亡、伤残、疾病或者达到合同约定的年龄、期限时承担给付保险金责任的商业保险行为。

 

个人理解,保险就是对保险标的物可能发生的损坏、损失等风险,通过缴纳保费成立统一基金,进行风险平坦的一个应对方案。通过设置保费和赔付比例,用大多数保险标的保费,对少数保险标的的损失,进行补偿的一个策略。也可以理解为,交了保费但没有发生理赔状况的大多数保费资金汇集一起,赔付给交了保费并发生了保险约定的赔付状况的人。

商业保险是其中的一个重要组成部分,并且针对的领域很多,包括人身意外伤害、人寿、财产、责任等。通常商业保险是个人自愿,多投多保。

所以,这里面会有一个赔付比例,个人认为,商业保险可能会是,从总体保费收入扣除机构损耗和利润,根据风险发生概率,平衡所有人的风险,用大多数没有发生赔付情况的投保人保费来对发生理赔范围的少数投保人负责。

由此我们可以发现,保险是是对风险的一个共同承担,是社会互助的一个实现形式。商业保险,就是一个自愿结成的由具有商业行为的企业运作的,他们也要从中获取部分劳动所得,但国家还是为他们制定了部分法律和其他框架约束。同样我们也可以发现,社会养老保险也是其中的一个典范。只是相比,其具有很多其他的特点,比如说不能有社会企业运作、只能有国家运作;比如不是自愿参加,要求全员参与。

其次,本人关于社会养老保险存在一些疑问:

1、       为什么必须由国家负责?

2、       为什么强制所有人参与?

3、       都有哪些原则?

4、       在付出义务之后,什么情况可以享受权利?

5、       和平均寿命有什么关系?

最后,本人属于草根,非专业,但是个人觉的还是讲道理、有热情的。因此,索性针对上述问题进行大胆的切磋(揣测):

1、国家负责有两个原因:

1.1建立的前提是国家具有公信力,公正而公平。如果有普通商业企业负责,他们是追逐利益的,因此不可避免还需要公正、监管,流程太复杂了,就比如红十字会,收了多少钱、花了多少钱、怎么花的,老百姓是弱势群体,很容易哄骗(其实现在很多事情表明,借助网络的发展,群众眼睛是雪亮的。不过,一些企业或者政府的应急攻关也是很出色的,一部分被化骨绵掌化于无形,一部分借助拖延和网络舆论转向消于无形)。

1.2企业参与会出现经营不善倒闭、或者挪用资金、潜逃等问题。比如过去一些企业职工养老,随着企业倒闭而成为无稽之谈。国家总不会倒闭吧(目前应该不会),并且理论上为大多数人方负责,公平公正公开应该是可信的。而且国家统筹的范围广,可以调节时间与空间的平衡。

2、强制参与,是出于社会稳定考虑。

举个例子,比如某些人没有参与,将来出现需要养老照顾的时候,就会出现上访事件、出现群体事件、干扰政府正常执政,国家还得额外出钱安抚。就比如住房公积金,如果没有这个制度,将这部分钱发到员工手里,就会出现不会理财的员工将这部分钱挥霍、或者挪用,导致无法预留、一直真正买房需要的时候却没有了。所以这里有一个小小的引申,就是这部分基金能否保值?我今年存的够买一头牛的,结果明年只够买一只鸡的?(还不如折算为等值黄金缴纳,不然不就是被国家的刺激消费、通胀、或者汇率、国债等货币政策稀释了吗?)

3、原则:

不同于商业企业,这不是一个盈利的机构和业务,应该是为人民服务的;

要是公开的,收入、支出,不只是总额;

相比之下,公积金好歹可以理解为另一种形式的个人财产,比如特种用途的银行存款(零存整取),就是不知道能否作为个人财产的一部分继承。

4、义务?权利??

上面简单的分析了一下保险的原则,就是用总体保费收入,扣除费用均摊风险。由于社保养老是福利、不是商业保险,那就应该是用全部养老基金来负责所有涉及养老问题的人,没有盈利。

一种作为公积金性质或者作为个人特殊用途存款性质,但是这样就没有保险的互助特性了;二是作为一种公共资源。这就要涉及到养老金领取的退休年龄制定了。

5、平均寿命?(<>=~)退休年龄

上面曾经提到过,社保是一个社会统筹,具有全民共担风险,调节时间、空间的不均衡问题。就好比水库、南水北调。前者调节时间,后者调节空间。上面还提到非盈利、公益的特性,因此我就大胆假设退休和平均寿命的关系:

上面第四点已经否定了个人专属应用,需要平衡社会人群,所以应该是收支基本相等,那得出简单结论就是:平均寿命的缴纳等于支出,低于平均寿命的少领的养老金补贴高于平均寿命的,这就起到了年龄间的统筹。如果平均寿命70岁,那应该到70时领取的养老金应该等于缴纳的养老金吧?这样是不是收支平衡了?

也许有人会说,目前领取的人多、缴纳的人少,所有收支不平衡。那我就有疑问了:我们创造的价值已经包含了缴纳养老金的部分,那现在领取的人他们缴纳了吗?如果没缴纳,那笔钱去哪了?作为集体的利润上缴国家了?作为个人价值发放了?还是不幸被挥霍或者贪污了?

而且,现在收入小于支出,那将来收入大于支出怎么办?要保险干嘛,不就是均摊风险吗?保险公司能随便修改保险理赔条件吗?那还要国家来运作干什么?水库都具有调节时间分布不均衡问题,我记得国家好像还能通过每年的预算赤字、发行国债调节收支呢。如果通过延迟退休,让现在收支平衡了,对大部分人都公平吗?我不懂缴纳基数和领取公式的计算,只能臆想一个。

如果养老基金有缺口,就不能把部分捐给国外的款捐(网上有好多给国外捐款的消息我就不说了)给自己人嘛?好歹那也是自家人的钱、却不给自家人用?道德真的很高尚?共产主义好像号召的是共产主义内部的人各取所需吧?好像没有看到要让资本主义社会的人享受社会主义的福利吧?大国形象,捐款换来了谢谢、还换来了什么?都说捐款不图什么?可问题是家里人还饿着呢!!!

上面简单推测平均寿命和领取条件的关系,大胆假设:如果真的以70岁计算,平均工作年龄25岁计算,中间有45年,30年缴纳15年领取,交两年领一年,也就是两个月缴纳的一个月领取应该够生活费吧?如果不够,那和通胀会不会有关系?是不是国债、贷款、援助稀释了老百姓的财富?(都说黄金是作为货币的一般等价物,可他为什么升值了,还不是货币贬值了吗?

养老金是一生的依靠呀,总不能我今天开开心心的缴纳,将来又以各种理由变相阻止我领取吧?我们每天承受着地沟油、皮带胶囊、染色馒头、三聚氰胺牛奶,不会拼死拼活也活不到平均寿命吧?那些公务员平均寿命肯定会比全国平均寿命高吧!那如果真的要按照平均寿命来算,那会不会按照各个行业的平均寿命计算退休年龄?不会我们缴来缴去到时勉强活到退休结果领取的只够买只鸡吧?

 

2012年7月15日16:15:15 初稿 by 豪迈(horror

2012年7月29日17:54:11完成 by 豪迈(horror


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17 thoughts on “养老“保险”缴纳之后将来真能顺利领到吗?–由延迟退休想到的–by豪迈(horror)

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