草根屁民关于延迟退休若干问题的疑惑和探讨–by豪迈(horror)

关于延迟退休若干问题的探讨

      近日,随着官方的阶梯和逐步施行延迟退休实施方案的最终公布, 这一场引起社会广泛思考、各类专家官员纷纷表态,在各相关利益方的博弈下,终于以国家的行政意志最终获胜而结束。
      在这场延迟退休的博弈中,我们这一类最直接的利害关系人成了缺席者,集体失声。或者是因为我们是天朝的屁民,没有说话的权利、说话没有份量,岂止我们,哪怕是名声响当当的专家学者意见都没有采纳。
      其实这件事,在开始之前,就已经内定了结局。铁定实施,这是板上钉钉的事,天朝的行事,用脚趾头都能想到。
在这里,我一个草根屁民,只能意淫一下我的相关分析和探讨。
      主要两个方面,一是关于这场闹剧、喜剧、或者悲剧;一是关于延迟退休本身。
1、为什么要延迟退休?
有不少专家提出养老金缺口:虽然目前总体结余,但个人养老金账户是空账,也就是个人的钱被政府拿去发放和挪借了,如果补足,会有缺口。另外,随着人口结构,计划生育实施前生育高峰期出生的人群会陆续退休,老龄化社会来临,更使未来养老金缺口加大。
官员却说养老金目前结余状态,其他的都含糊其词、或者顾左右而言他。比如我们的60岁退休是在多少年前制定,那时平均寿命很低,现在平均寿命提高了。又或者老龄化、劳动力不足等等,一口咬定这两点才是实行延迟退休根本原因。
以我草根屁民的判断,上面的专家还是良心的。但最终肯定是天朝获胜了。
对此我有几个疑惑以及要探讨的地方。
1.1 养老金缺口
我认为是真的,并且也是这一事件背后的根本原因。
疑惑一、为什么会有缺口?
每个人要至少交15年才能领取,个人交A+单位交B,领取时领到的为个人A+地区统筹的b。小b为区域统筹单位B、社平工资和最低工资等各因素算出。
为什么会有缺口?难道有人没交却领了钱。另外个人A最终发回,为什么还要放到政府去拿低于活期的利息,难道就不能存成30十年定期或者余额宝、理财通。
疑惑二、钱不够了就要节流吗?节流就要延迟退休吗?
首先,养老是什么性质?各种书籍、官方文件、政治教材都宣扬是福利、是一份基本保障。
那是不是国家应该承担部分出资人业务。按照目前情况推断,貌似是以前100人交,10人领。以后会出现10人交100人领,如果按之前标准不够了。就有两种解决方案:1每个人变少,多交少领,这肯定不行。2延迟发放,变相多交少领,矛盾不是太明显。
那就是将来我能不能领到养老金、能领多少,和我交多少没关系。关键在于将来有没有人接盘继续交。说句夸张的,我老的时候,如果所有劳动力全移民了,我的养老金也就飞了!
如果这些养老金存银行或者买商业保险,只有交满15年的,本息轻松几十万差距。
这还是所谓的福利。
其次,节流应该从精简机构、简化政策、减少三公经费入手。相信社保机构人员不为养老金发愁。
最后政府不应该为所谓的福利出资吗?

1.2 劳动力不足
这个观点不知道有哪些支持论据。有人说用工荒,弱弱的问一句,富士康需要大批60岁老人可以吗?
再然后,将来如果真的用工荒了,那也不是延领养老金,而应该政策、制度鼓励工作。

1.3 平均寿命提高
我只想问,是要将退休年龄定在平均寿命吗?岂不是所有人都不用领了?
天朝真是做了稳赚不赔的好生意呀!

2 上面问题可以如下解决
2.1 缺口
既然是福利就需要政府财政支持,另外除了当期发放,结余部分不能以极低利息存到银行、而让政府机构和银行享受利差红利。
2.2 劳动力短缺
那应该延迟退休、鼓励工作、养老金照常领取。
2.3 放宽食品安全、鼓励污染降低平均寿命,这样不知是否可以。

3对某些狗屎专家言论的疑惑

3.1有专家说延迟退休能增加老年人收入,降低子女负担。
草根屁民又有疑惑,专家的结论怎么得出来的。对此,分析觉得可能是专家认为60岁后拿的工资比养老金多,貌似只能这么理解。
下面我在一下推导:

延退前
不能工作(残疾、生病)        养老金
能工作(不去)                       养老金
能工作(返聘、兼职)           养老金+工资
延退后
不能工作(残疾、生病)         0
能工作(不去)                         0
能工作(返聘、兼职)            0+工资

好像都不能得出专家的结论,请某黑心专家拍砖,你是先有立场、后有结论,还是当时喝多了或者被遥控站台。

3.2包括社科院、清华等各科研机构和高校专家,是以事实为依据,以良心和真理做依托吗?
你们接受调研和制定延退草案的过程中,就千方百计想着怎么符合天朝意志、怎么粉饰和完善谎言、掩盖真相?就没想过有没有其它方案解决问题,以及如何完善制度?
这个我学理的一小硕士还真搞不懂。

2014年7月19日 08:42:00 初稿于K1163火车 by 豪迈(horror)

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