[转载]年轻人,你的养老金在哪里

[转载]年轻人,你的养老金在哪里

中国银行等机构发布的一项研究报告预测,到2013年,中国养老金的缺口将达到18.3万亿元。报告指出,在人口老龄化的冲击下,我国养老金的统筹账户,将给财政造成巨大负担,建议实施延迟退休年龄、国有股划拨、机关事业单位改革等多种措施以缓解压力。此报告一出,引发了社会不同阶层的激烈争论。全国老龄工作委员会办公室发布的《中国人口老龄化发展趋势研究报告》预测,2014年我国老年人口将达到2亿,2026年达到3亿,2037年超过4亿,2051年达到最大值,之后将一直维持在3亿至4亿的规模。人口老龄化浪潮带来的一系列社会问题已初现端倪,这其中就包括日趋紧迫的养老保险保障需求。

我在新书《财经郎眼08中,解释了中国现行养老金体制及其不合理之处。  

当我们只有退休,没有“金”

    如果经济往下走,政府税收下降了,而“婴儿潮”这些人又开始退休了,结果会怎样?中国现在是什么情况呢?针对养老金这个问题,专家分成了两派,一派叫做“认为亏空派”,另一派叫做“否认亏空派”,教授来给断断是非。

    通常来说“否认亏空派”占绝大多数。“你”到底有没有亏空?从实际数据看,2010年,取走养老金的金额是1.3万亿,可是当年年轻人贡献的养老金金额是1.5万亿。取走1.3万亿,贡献1.5万亿,怎么会亏空呢?年轻人交的养老金或者退休金分为两个账户,一个是个人账户,一个是社会账户,个人账户是你自己每个月交的,社会账户是你的公司或者企业帮你交的。社会这部分,政府还可以动用,个人这部分,政府想要动用就很难。所以我们算了一下,政府能够动用的金额差不多是1.1万亿,也就是说,政府要支付1.3万亿给已经退休的人,但是能够动用的钱只有1.1万亿,刚好亏空2000多个亿。2010年的亏空是1954亿,2011年亏空是2272亿,差不多都在2000亿左右。每一年亏空2000多亿是什么意思呢?就是说,年轻人交的1.5万亿养老金的大部分都被拿去给退休人士了,因此等这批年轻人老了以后,会发现自己以前交的钱都没有了,这才是亏空的意思。

    人保部出面否认,说没有这么大的亏空,养老金还结余了1.9万亿,这个怎么解释呢?

    在每年交1.5万亿的情况下,才结余1.9万亿?从1997年开始交到2013年,总共16年的时间,如果每年交1万多亿,加在一起可远不止这个钱,怎么才结余1.9万亿呢?可见亏空18.3万亿,这个数字还是比较可信的。

    现在退休的人也还没有那么多,等到将来“婴儿潮”一代退休的时候,数量那么大,那个时候怎么支付这么巨额的养老金呢?有关部门很乐观。一是1.9万亿的家底;二是有全国社保基金理事会,它可是A股的王者,在A股中不断续写不败的神话。

    一年百分之八点几的回报率,这个是不容易的。其实养老金问题不仅是中国的问题,全世界各国都有类似的问题。美国政府对此非常重视,美国的养老金基本上都投在股市,这是为了保证它的养老金有足够的回报,让老年人在老有所养的情况下,同时确保美国股市50年来每一年的收益都在7.5%以上。因此为什么美国股市看涨?很大一部分原因就是因为退休金。所以对于美国而言,老百姓自己出退休金,或者公司出退休金,它全部是民营经济,没有政府负担的问题。美国政府只要做一件事儿,就是保证股市是长期向上的,这些退休金就有足够的回报,老年人退休就没有问题了。

    这等于说美国的退休金跟资本市场是一个长期的共赢。而中国政府是什么都喜欢往身上扛,连退休金、社保金都往身上扛,所以说,目前的亏空是一个必然。2011年1—5月份,税收的增长率是30.8%,今年呢?才9.4%而已。税收增长率大幅下降,为什么?因为经济大幅下挫。如果经济往下走,政府税收下降了,而“婴儿潮”这些人又开始退休了,结果会怎样?

    现在有人出了个主意,学习美国,养老金入市。但问题是美国养老金数额挺大的,到了资本市场可以搅动得翻天覆地。

    美国股市不是因为养老金的投入而上升,养老金不是一个炒作资金,而是稳定地投资在好的公司里面,它不会说今天投,明天就拿出来。而且如何投资,是由老百姓说了算,老百姓告诉你怎么投资,你就得怎么投资。所以说,美国政府不是靠养老金来搅动市场,而是靠法律的监管,打击内幕交易操纵股价等,来保证股票市场长期发展。

    在美国,资本有稳定的收益,它的养老金是可以跑得赢通胀的,基本能达到“老有所养”的状态。那我们国内的养老金呢?

   我们没有什么工具是能够跑得赢通胀的,就拿大家普遍认为收益率比较高的信托基金来讲吧,8%,这已经算很高的了,但即使8%,按照我们的判断也跑不过通胀,因为我们的通胀还是比较严重的,那股票市场就更不靠谱了。所以今天的危机是什么?是我们的退休金没有一个好的投资渠道,它不能够生息的结果,将来就会出现危机。

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15 thoughts on “[转载]年轻人,你的养老金在哪里

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