[转载]那些2013年即将消失的网站

???????有人说互联网是一个连呼吸都嫌慢的行业。科技说感同身受,两年前还是热钱追捧的新模式,转眼已化身落伍的代名词。科技说认为在互联网行业中如果想东方不败必须永保创业激情,稍一放松机会转瞬即逝,被淘汰只是时间问题。如果我们躲过传说中2012年12月21日的这场浩劫,明年下面这4家网站仍难逃关门噩运。

猫扑

论坛最红火的那几年,天涯、猫扑坐稳了头两把交椅。“铜须门”、“虐猫门”等一系列事件奠定了猫扑人肉搜索的霸主地位,母公司千橡更是大笔投入,猫扑一时间成了论坛与新闻并存的娱乐门户网站。而当年千橡重金打造猫扑也是想借助其超高人气,再打包旗下donews,人人网,集体赴美上市。而最终只有人人网单独上市,猫扑已经无发展前景,之后便取消新闻频道,重返老地盘论坛。

随着去年到今年微博的持续火热,新媒体平台日益丰富,单调的论坛模式已经走向了死胡同,多数论坛网站纷纷转型。当年的chinaren已经关门,天涯也开始了一遍遍改版,而猫扑却固守当年的图片、话题不愿让步。以下为猫扑近一年在流量监测网站alexa上的数据变化:

b53229betd040d7f65800&690

  由图可见,猫扑一年内流量持续下滑,如无特殊情况,猫扑基本走到末路。而打包集体上市未果后,猫扑对于千橡来说已成鸡肋,不会有太大投入。

 由此,科技说大胆预测,猫扑明年必倒。

拉手网

经过过去几年“百团大战”洗礼,团购网站被淘汰了一大批。在科技说看来,团购网站洗牌远未结束,在此之前比拼的是营销、资源,从明年开始,现金为王,谁有足够的现金谁就能度过这个行业寒冬。

拉手网貌似是不缺钱的,2011年也是拉手网烧钱最猛的一年,在各大城市、公交站台、电视台循环播放葛优代言的广告,而终极目标自然是上市。2011年拉手网首次赴美上市以失败告终,同期拉手网亏损1.7亿元。今年来随着团购概念降温,拉手网融资已成大问题,据了解,拉手网已在全线收缩,去年烧钱的营销状态今年难再现。“支付宝风波”大大降低了中国概念在美国资本市场诚信度,中国公司赴美上市路途顿时艰难数倍,拉手网上市梦已碎。

传统互联网巨头百度、淘宝也在利用自身优势进军团购行业,淘宝聚划算已成为最大团购网站,百度利用百度地图、百度身边外围切入。团购网站已经用完了最美好的时光,如果说2012年团购行业还只是在内部厮杀,那么2013年大佬围剿团购网站将成为主线,“出头鸟”拉手网可能第一个被消灭。

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团购网站明年日子将更为艰难,曾经风光一时的24券陡然倒下给同行带来的教训已经够多,科技说在此提醒窝窝团等团购网站,捂紧自己的钱袋子,不要指望融资,未来只能靠自己。

凡客

近期电商行业呈现两极分化之势,一方面淘宝、天猫继续坐享最大人气,当当网进驻天猫,红孩子被苏宁并购,垂直电商似乎走向末路,而另一方面苏宁、国美、京东在3C家电领域已成三足鼎立之势,淘宝系很难匹敌,B2C电商已被市场认可,渐渐成为主流。

科技说认为,目前电商已告别野蛮成长过程,比的是行业背景和资本,如无深厚积淀很难生存。苏宁国美与供应商已形成良好依存关系,在家电电商领域已占领相对优势,京东虽然屡屡被传资金链出问题,但其市场规模已确保能得到投资方力挺。

2013年,大型电商里面倒下的最有可能是凡客。

从大环境来看,随着中国人口红利不在,人工成本持续走高,凡客代工厂劳务成本将逐年提高,直接挑战凡客的低价战略,并进一步挤压其利润。

凡客近年来管理层十分动荡,今年多位高管离开,从副总裁吴声到凡客体主导人杨芳。

凡客屡败屡试又屡试屡败的上市之路已看不到前景,错过了上市良机的凡客最后可能同时被用户和投资人抛弃。

科技说在此建议诸位凡客粉丝好好保存当年的凡客体广告,多年之后这将会是一段美好的回忆。

 九城

自从魔兽世界离开九城,九城消失已无多大悬念。科技说在此总结九城几大失误,分享给诸位。

押宝魔兽,头重脚轻。运营魔兽的那几年是九城的黄金时间,九城本来可以依靠手里大把现金以及资源加大自主游戏开发,以防魔兽不在。可九城没有这么做,全部依赖魔兽这个现金奶牛,魔兽所占收入最高曾达到9成。

死板僵硬跟不上形势,魔兽换主的事实已无法改变,自主游戏良机也已错过,但九城还是有机会的。在网页游戏和手机游戏领域,九城完全可以抢占先机。可遗憾的是,九城最后还是错过了。

九城可以看下下面的九城股价走势图,九城明年退市甚至关门都已成大概率事件。

九城数据

九城数据

本期科技说特盘点互联网领域4大行业代表性公司的前景,只为预警,无任何倾向性,请勿联想。

以上是科技说的一点拙见,希望广大博友共同探讨。如果各位大牛愿意赐教,请用各种方式告知科技说。如果对科技说有兴趣,可以订阅我们的微博:http://weibo.com/kejishuo。也可以扫描我们的二维码关注“kejishuo”。

 

科技说

科技说

49 thoughts on “[转载]那些2013年即将消失的网站

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